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FDP and the Greens likely king-makers for the next German government

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) demonstrated the highest rate of support among German voters (25.7%) during the federal elections on September 26th. The CDU/CSU block is following closely (24.1%) but was unable to secure a leading position due to its change in leadership, as well as criticism of some recent policies.

These results make a coalition government necessary. As the Left received lower electoral support (4.9%) than predicted by pre-election polls, the coalition of SPD, Left, and the Greens cannot secure a majority in parliament, thus narrowing down the range of possible outcomes of coalition formation.

We apply an original methodology, Gamson-Shapley Laws, to construct the following prediction. We base our forecast on the election results, and assess the stability of alternative majority coalitions subject to compatibility constraints among their members. Specifically, we assume that no party besides the CDU/CSU would partner with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD). By contrast, we do not strictly exclude the possibility of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition but consider it a less likely scenario, as these parties have indicated that they would not favor a so-called “grand coalition”.

We use data from the Manifesto project to calculate the distance between policy positions of the political parties, even though these historical data, given the recent changes in leadership of the Union, do not fully reflect current policy positions.

For each party we calculate its strategic influence (a measure of the impact the party could have on different coalitions towards reaching a majority), and rank each majority coalition by stability (a measure of the overall motivation of its members to participate).

Constraints in coalition formation

Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence (Shapley value) of political parties (red lines)

Stability (white bars) of predicted majority coalitions

Given that the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition (highest stability) is not likely to emerge by the intentions of their leaders, FDP and the Greens find themselves in the position of king-makers: the CDU/CSU or the SPD can only form separate majority coalitions in case FDP and the Greens also join as junior partners. The ‘streetlight’ coalition ( SPD-FDP-Green) has a slightly greater stability due to a higher closeness of the platforms of these political parties.

The CDU/CSU-SPD, while less likely, cannot be totally ruled out in case a tri-party agreement cannot be reached.

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A center-left coalition may emerge after new elections in Germany

The upcoming Federal elections in Germany on September 26, 2021 will determine the successor of Angela Merkel, the outgoing Chancellor of the Federal Republic and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU/CSU block has retained a leading position in government for almost 16 years but is quickly losing support in the post-Merkel era. As a consequence, the possibility of a new coalition that excludes the Union can no longer be discounted.

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has demonstrated a notable gain in electoral support in recent months, while CDU/CSU and the Greens have lost ground. The decreasing popularity of CDU/CSU can be attributed to various factors. Some voters have been dissatisfied with the handling of the COVID-19 crisis, while others appreciated a more central political position of CDU/CSU under Angela Merkel’s leadership. Further criticism has been expressed concerning the response to the floods in Germany in July of 2021.

We base our forecast on the poll data (INSA, 6-10.09.2021) , and assess the stability of alternative majority coalitions subject to compatibility constraints among their members. Specifically, we assume that no party besides the CDU/CSU would partner with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Constraints in coalition formation
Projected seats (bar size) vs. strategic influence (Shapley value) of political parties (red lines)
Stability (white bars) of predicted majority coalitions

The coalition with greatest stability is projected to be SPD-Left-Green, immediately followed by CDU/CSU-FDP-Green. This remains the case under the additional assumption that an alliance of the Left with the CDU/CSU or the FDP is excluded.

A coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD will continue to have a majority, however, neither of the parties is expected to favor this scenario, as they would be likely to enjoy a more dominant role in a coalition that excludes the other. A coalition consisting of SPD, FDP, and the Greens is likewise likely to be unattractive for potential participants due to a broader range of political platforms.